As Hillary embraced her delegate free victory in Florida Tuesday night, she spoke with confidence about the momentum of her campaign. She would be disappointed to know her shares did not benefit from this neutered primary. At the time of this post, Senator Clinton is trading down at 61.9% ($6.19). Her rival Senator Obama is trading up at 38%, and on the other side of the aisle, John McCain is trading down at 82.9% and Mitt Romney up at 13.6%.
Say hello to the market as an indicator to which candidate will win their party’s nomination. Thanks to the online platform of Intrade.com, we can liquidate our slumping portfolios, set up an account and hedge on a candidate or two. Intrade.com allows traders to access a prediction market where “shares” can be purchased in a variety of arenas shaped by the emergence or actualization an event. Other prediction markets include the economy (probability of recession: 62.9%), entertainment (Academy Award for best actor: Daniel Day Lewis 82%, Vigo Mortensen 3%), and current events (OBL to be captured or “neutralized” by 3/31/08, 2.7%).
Since Giuliani’s endorsement of McCain, the Arizona senator’s stock has slipped slightly. John Edwards has yet to endorse, leaving the two democrats volatile at the moment. Both Clinton and Obama are looking to boost share value through their collegial (read sycophantic) tributes to Mr. Edwards on their respective websites. But we have some big trading days ahead before the earnings report next Tuesday. Could a Giants’ victory over the Patriots on Sunday support any undervalued shares by shaking up expectations? Probably not and we are in Bear market favoring the established leaders. But as we know, pollsters can be wrong and financial guidance can belie stock performance.
Lets hope for surprises in both contests.
(Editors note: Lodge Porch does not advocate investing on Intrade and suggests ignoring all polls and pundits.)
