With just a few hours before race time, Charley Berkeley Miller gives us some background on the state of horse racing today, and how the Derby is tough to buy.
1) When did you get into horse racing?
first trip to churchill downs was with my boy scout troop 110 while in grade school. the scout masters would place the bets for us and teach us the finer points of handicapping. we didn't get a merit badge for this yet it was probably the most valuable lesson i got in the scouts.
2) Who's your favorite horse all overall?
as the barbaro legend grows, i think people are forgetting about what afleet alex did in the triple crown: just miss the derby win, takes the preakness after falling to his knees, and then winning the belmont in a nearly secretariat-esque romp. that horse had more guts than anyone i've seen... with one exception: smarty jones, the only horse to give me goose bumps nearly every time he ran. and the day he was ganged up against and subsequently lost the belmont was a sad, sad day.
3) Every year you buy into a superfecta (full disclosure I am joining him this year). Explain what it is and how you arrive at your line up?
superfecta is an exotic (not erotic but to me it is) bet that consists of nailing the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers in exact order. it's only a $2 bet. but usually my gang (and) i spend somewhere in the $800/$900 range to maximize our chances with lots of combinations. for $840, you can have 7 horses able to come in the top 4 in any order. the payouts are tremendous in the derby if you're able to hit one. i've hit two lifetime, but not on the derby (although twice i've had 3 of 4).
4) Big Brown positioned poorly in the 20th slot, but his trainer is optimistic. Is this spin or is this horse the real thing?
this is a good horse. maybe great. but even great horses get bad trips and lose the derby (see Native Dancer). starting from the 20 nearly guarantees a bad trip. because the rest of the field is so mediocre, i'm going against my "bettor" judgment and keeping him in the superfecta.
5) The Kentucky Derby is the premiere event for horse racing in America and close to 150,000 people will descend on Churchill Downs, but overall attendance is thinning at the tracks, mainly because the betting crowd is now placing wagers online at home. Are we in the last days of spectator racing? Where will all those older gentlemen with cigars and Panama hats spend their afternoons?
everyone knows the sport needs to operate with casinos to be profitable, as this is where people like to gamble with their entertainment dollars. most states with a healthy race horse population are pushing to have slots installed in race tracks. who knows if this is really the answer, i have my doubts. while places with tremendous history like suffolk downs in boston is dying a slow death, the good news is that the industry overall is healthy if you just look at how the ownership of horses is expanding (as are the horses' price tags). match races is one idea to lure people back into the sport (think title bouts) but apparently this can be really hard on horses.
6) Sheik Mohammed has yet to win the roses despite investing the equivalent of the GDP of a small nation into his prospects. Why can't the man who brought alpine skiing to the desert get his horse to cross the finish line first?
i wish i had time to give you the exact stats, but for every recent derby winner that cost over a million as a yearling, there's a winner that no one wanted, that cost maybe 10 grand. in a lot of ways the derby is the only championship sport in the world where everyone (you, me, your readers) have a chance to win the derby NEXT YEAR... not as fans or bettors but as horse owners. and the best stories the sport has are the ones where the little guy finds a special unwanted colt and in a year's time are on top of the world. back to Native Dancer: he was owned by Vanderbilts who were the Sheik Mohammed's of their day. Never was able to win the roses and had all the money in the world to spend in doing it. Winning the derby takes a lot of luck and a damn courageous pony.
7) Are you going to call Chelsea an elitist if she doesn't do a shot bourbon with you?
Depends on how many bourbons I've had up to that point ;)
Stayed tuned to for Charley's photos from the Kentucky Derby.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
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